Bhutan's Demographic Crisis

Bhutan's demographic crisis refers to a set of interconnected population trends — declining fertility, accelerating emigration, rural depopulation, and population aging — that have emerged as among the most pressing policy challenges facing the country. Bhutan's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from approximately five to six children per woman in 1990 to an estimated 1.5 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Simultaneously, an estimated 66,000 Bhutanese — nearly nine percent of the total population — have emigrated for work or education since 2022, with Australia as the primary destination. Rural areas, particularly in eastern Bhutan, are experiencing depopulation, with over 4,800 registered households standing empty. Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay has publicly described the situation as an "existential crisis."

Fertility Decline

Bhutan has undergone one of the fastest fertility transitions in Asia. The TFR fell from an estimated 6.0 in 1990 to 2.5 by 2005, and by 2017 had dropped below replacement level to approximately 1.7. Data from the World Bank and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) indicate that by 2023 the TFR had fallen to approximately 1.46, rising slightly to 1.5–1.85 in 2024 depending on the source and methodology used.^[1]

The decline is attributed to multiple factors: increased female education, later marriage, urbanization, the availability of family planning services, and changing aspirations among younger Bhutanese. Bhutan's contraceptive prevalence rate has risen significantly since the 1980s. The government's health policies, widely regarded as successful in reducing maternal and infant mortality, have also contributed to the demographic transition by reducing the perceived need for large families.

The UNFPA has projected that Bhutan's below-replacement fertility, if sustained, will lead to population decline beginning in the 2040s, even without accounting for emigration. Combined with emigration, the effective population may already be functionally declining.^[2]

Emigration

Since the reopening of Bhutan's borders following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, emigration has surged. Government officials have acknowledged that approximately 66,000 Bhutanese, overwhelmingly young and educated, have left the country. This figure represents nearly nine percent of Bhutan's total population of approximately 780,000–800,000, and a substantially larger share of the working-age population.^[3]

Australia has emerged as the dominant destination. The 2021 Australian census recorded approximately 12,500 Bhutanese residents, but arrivals have accelerated since then — more than 11,000 Bhutanese received Australian education visas in the two years following border reopening. The Bhutanese community in Australia is now the largest diaspora population outside the resettled refugee communities. Between August 2023 and October 2024 alone, Bhutan received $210 million in remittances, of which $132 million originated from Australia.^[4]

The emigration is driven by a combination of limited employment opportunities within Bhutan, particularly for educated youth; significantly higher wages abroad; and the desire for international experience. Youth unemployment in Bhutan has been persistently high, and public-sector employment — historically the aspiration of most graduates — has not expanded fast enough to absorb new entrants to the labor market.

Sectoral Impacts

The departure of educated workers has created acute shortages in critical sectors:

• Education: In March 2025, the Ministry of Education announced plans to rehire retired or resigned teachers to fill 1,126 vacancies nationwide.
• Healthcare: In June 2024, the Ministry of Health reported shortages of 172 doctors and specialists and 824 nurses.
• Private sector: Businesses, particularly in tourism and construction, have reported difficulty retaining skilled workers.

The phenomenon has been characterized as a "brain drain," with concern that Bhutan is losing its most productive and best-trained citizens.

Rural Depopulation (Gungtong)

Internal rural-to-urban migration has been occurring alongside international emigration, producing a phenomenon the Bhutanese call gungtong — literally, "empty house." The 2017 Population and Housing Census found that 21.7 percent of the population had migrated to urban areas at some point in their lives, leaving agricultural land fallow and registered households empty.

As of the 2017 census, there were 4,800 registered gungtongs across the country. The district of Trashigang in eastern Bhutan had the highest number, with over 1,400 empty households. The consequences include farm labor shortages, an aging rural population (as only the elderly remain), increase in fallow agricultural land, and abandonment of ancestral homes. Human-wildlife conflict has intensified as abandoned farmland attracts wildlife closer to remaining settlements.^[5]

Climate change is accelerating rural depopulation. Changing rainfall patterns, glacial lake outburst floods, and increased crop damage from extreme weather events make subsistence agriculture increasingly precarious, pushing more rural residents toward urban centers or emigration.

Aging Population

Bhutan's age structure is shifting. The proportion of the population aged 65 and above was approximately 2.8 percent in 1990, rose to an estimated 6 percent by 2022, and is projected to reach 17.3 percent by 2050. The old-age dependency ratio — the number of persons aged 65 and older per 100 working-age persons — is projected to increase from 11.2 percent in 2022 to 26.2 percent by 2050.^[6]

This shift will place increasing demands on Bhutan's healthcare system, social protection mechanisms, and pension provisions, all of which are still in early stages of development. Bhutan does not have a comprehensive public pension system for the private sector.

Census Accuracy Questions

Bhutan's population statistics have long been subject to uncertainty. Historical population estimates varied widely, and the country did not conduct its first modern census until 2005. The 2017 census recorded a population of approximately 735,000, but UN estimates for the same period were higher. The discrepancies arise partly from differing methodologies, the challenge of counting a population spread across mountainous terrain, and questions about whether emigrated individuals are counted as residents.

The upcoming census cycle will be closely watched for its treatment of the emigrated population, which could significantly affect official population figures and dependency ratios.

Government Response

The government of Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, who took office in January 2024, has made the demographic crisis a central policy concern. Initiatives include the ambitious Gelephu Mindfulness City Special Administrative Region project, intended to attract investment and create employment that might stem emigration. The government has also discussed improving working conditions and salaries in the public sector, strengthening vocational training, and creating incentives for Bhutanese abroad to return.

However, some analysts have noted that the structural drivers of emigration — the wage differential with Australia and other destination countries, limited private-sector growth, and the aspirational pull of international education — are unlikely to be reversed by domestic policy changes alone.

See Also

• Economy of Bhutan
• Bhutanese in Australia
• Gelephu Mindfulness City
• Education in Bhutan

References

1. Bhutan Fertility Rate (1950-2025) — Macrotrends
2. Population Dynamics and Data — UNFPA Bhutan
3. Bhutan Facing Existential Crisis? 66,000 Youth Leave Country — NorthEast Live TV
4. Assessing Bhutan's migration trends and policies — ORF (Observer Research Foundation)
5. Rural Depopulation and Empty Rural Houses in Bhutan — Mountain Research and Development, Vol. 43, No. 1 (2023)
6. Population at Crossroads: An Analysis of Demographic Trends in Contemporary Bhutan — American Journal of STEM Education
7. Bhutan Demographics 2026 — Worldometer