Bhutan's Third Nationally Determined Contribution (2025)

Bhutan's Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) is the Kingdom of Bhutan's updated climate action plan submitted under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Launched on 24 October 2025 and formally submitted to the UNFCCC on 10 November 2025, the NDC 3.0 covers the period to 2035 and represents Bhutan's most comprehensive and ambitious climate commitment. It reaffirms the kingdom's historic 2009 pledge — made at the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 15) in Copenhagen — to maintain carbon neutrality for all time, ensuring that greenhouse gas emissions never exceed the carbon sequestration capacity of Bhutan's forests and land-based sinks.^[1]

Bhutan is one of the few countries in the world that is already carbon negative, meaning its forests absorb more carbon dioxide than the nation emits. The latest national greenhouse gas inventory for 2022 confirms that Bhutan has maintained this status. Under the business-as-usual scenario, GHG emissions are projected at 4,454 Gg CO2 equivalent (without land use, land-use change, and forestry) by 2035, well within the estimated carbon sink capacity of 10,965 Gg CO2 equivalent.^[2]

Mitigation Commitments

The NDC 3.0 strengthens Bhutan's mitigation ambitions across all major emitting sectors: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, livestock, human settlements, and forestry. A central pillar of the mitigation strategy is the National Energy Policy 2025, which sets a target of 25,000 MW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2040, comprising 15,000 MW from hydropower, 5,000 MW from solar, and additional contributions from wind, biomass, and geothermal sources. Bhutan currently generates the majority of its electricity from hydropower, and the expansion target would position the kingdom as a major clean energy exporter in South Asia.^[3]

The energy-efficiency component integrates measures across all energy-intensive sectors to support long-term energy security and reduce sectoral emissions. In transport, the NDC promotes the adoption of electric vehicles and the development of sustainable urban mobility systems. In agriculture and livestock — which together constitute a significant share of Bhutan's non-forestry emissions — the plan emphasises climate-smart farming practices, improved livestock management, and reduced methane emissions.^[2]

Adaptation Priorities

For the first time, Bhutan's NDC explicitly positions climate adaptation as an equally urgent priority alongside mitigation. As a small mountainous developing state, Bhutan is disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), shifting monsoon patterns, increased landslide risk, and threats to biodiversity. The NDC 3.0 identifies seven key adaptation sectors: water resources, agriculture and food security, health, biodiversity and ecosystems, infrastructure, energy, and human settlements. It also, for the first time, integrates social sectors including health and education into the national climate framework.^[4]

Climate Finance

The NDC 3.0 outlines a comprehensive climate finance strategy built around several mechanisms. The Green Finance Taxonomy provides a framework for directing public and private investment toward sustainable activities. The Bhutan Climate Fund is designed to mobilise and channel carbon finance into low-carbon projects. The plan also seeks enhanced direct access to UNFCCC funds through accredited national entities, notably the Bhutan Trust Fund for Environmental Conservation. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) provided technical support for the preparation of the NDC 3.0, including capacity building for climate data collection and emissions modelling.^[5]

Constitutional Foundation

Bhutan's climate commitments are underpinned by the Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan (2008), which mandates that a minimum of 60 per cent of the country's total land area be maintained under forest cover for all time. As of 2022, approximately 71 per cent of Bhutan's land area is forested, well above the constitutional threshold. This constitutional forestry provision is a cornerstone of Bhutan's carbon neutrality, as the extensive forest cover serves as the primary carbon sink against which emissions are measured.^[6]

International Context

Despite contributing negligibly to global greenhouse gas emissions, Bhutan has positioned itself as a moral leader on climate action. The NDC 3.0 emphasises the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and calls on developed nations to meet their climate finance obligations to enable vulnerable countries like Bhutan to implement adaptation and resilience measures. Bhutan's carbon-neutral status and ambitious NDC have been cited by international organisations as a model for how small developing states can demonstrate climate leadership while pursuing economic growth aligned with the Gross National Happiness development philosophy.^[4]